In the Saturday, July 7 Washington Post real estate section, an article entitled, “How Low Will It Go? Well, Where Do You Live?” quotedCenter for Regional Analysis’s John McClain, who was asked just how much lower local values might dip.

 

"Not much,” he said. “The fundamentals of the economy are very sound.” McClain noted in the article that region-wide, average prices for single-family houses started to turn up in January even though it was just a 1 percent increase over the previous January. Prices rose during three of the first five months this year compared with last year, he said.

 

Later in the Post article, McClain stated that he “thinks national forecasters underestimate the strength of local employment, which supports a stronger housing market.”

 

On a national level, existing-home sales are forecasted to pick up late this year, according to the latest National Association of REALTORS®.

 

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said a good buyers’ market has evolved. “Buyers now have an overwhelming advantage given the wide selection of homes available in many markets,” he said.

 

In the same release, Yun said. “Local conditions vary considerably, but with historically low mortgage interest rates this summer and sustained job gains, it could be a good time for first-time buyers with a long-term view to test the housing waters.”

 

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to average 6.7 percent during the second half of this year, and fluctuate around 6.6 percent in 2008.

The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent after their recent monetary policy meeting. With this decision, the Fed has kept interest rates at 5.25 percent for one full year.

 

The Fed’s statement focused on economic growth, stating that it appears to have been "moderate" during the first half of 2007. "The economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters," it stated.

 

A total of 2001 homes sold in June, about 11 percent less than in June 2006, when 2,252 homes sold.

 

Active listings increased from May as sellers prepared for the spring market, but total inventory remained below last year’s level by about 12.05 percent, standing at 10,639 active listings at the end of June, compared to 12,096 homes available at the end of June 2006. Homes continue to take longer to sell, with the average Northern Virginia home in June 2007 staying on the market for 65 days. In June 2006, homes averaged 49 days on the market (DOM).

 

The average sales price in June 2007 in Northern Virginia was $569,826, reflecting a 1.53 percent decrease from the average sales price of $578,689 in June 2006.

 

The median price of a home sold in Northern Virginia in June was $490,000, 2 percent below June 2006’s median price of $500,000. (The median price reflects the price at which an equal number of homes in the region are sold at higher and lower prices.)

 

 

Greater Northern Virginia sales data shows a slight lag in market activity, as a higher inventory and lower demand in further-out suburbs have slowed the sales pace compared to the core Northern Virginia region. The average sales price of $522,836 in June 2007 was about 2.68 percent more than the June 2006 average sales price of $509,182.

 

The number of Greater Northern Virginia region units sold in June was 3,133 about a 17.42 percent decline from June 2006’s 3,794 houses that sold.

 

Across Greater Northern Virginia, 23,407 listings are active on the market, which is 6.28 percent more than this time last year, when 22,024 homes were available. The average number of days on the market for a home sold in June 2007 was 83 compared to the 57 DOM of one year ago.