Every Positive Indicator Helps: NVAR March Housing Data
This Region’s Recovery From The Recession, Expected Job Growth…
Both Favorable In 2009, States GMU Center For Regional Analysis’
Senior Fellow John McClain in May Update Magazine
Preview what McClain writes in Update about local economic indicators:
…“It is too early to know how the initiatives begun by the Obama Administration will begin to take effect and gain traction to move the national economy upward. Certainly the efforts underway are ambitious – both to fix the financial system and, through efforts to help the foreclosure problems, to turn the housing market around.
“The region’s housing market has also performed fairly well given the national and global economic turmoil. Sales … were increasing month-over-the-year, and price declines as well as foreclosures in the region seemed to plateau. There is time yet to go to work through the economic and market mess of the past four years, but before long all indicators will be turning around.
“At the national level, GDP should turn positive again – indicating economic expansion – later this year. National job growth will take longer to turn upward. But at the local level, we are forecasting net growth in jobs for 2009 of 18,000, and by 2011 we expect the region to be growing in jobs near the long-term average of 45,000 jobs per year. The housing market remains a question, especially in terms of prices. However, the increases in sales and beginnings of economic recovery, along with the federal administration’s initiatives and the spring selling season, may well mean that 2009 will see the housing market starting its recovery.”
It Now Makes $en$e To Try
CNN Cites That Despite Fluctuations, Interest Rates Match Those in 1956: Re-financers, Homebuyers Can $ave Big
According to a report recently cited on the CNN Web site, "Homeowners and buyers are benefiting from the initiatives of the Federal Reserve to purchase mortgage debt and government securities in an effort to reduce borrowing costs and jumpstart the economy."
Even with the increase, rates remain at historic lows, the report said. Rates have plunged since late October, when 30-year fixed home mortgage rates averaged 6.77 percent.
Home mortgage rates dropped to a 52-year low last week according to Bankrate data, with the average 30-falling to 5.19 percent. The last time rates dipped lower than that was in 1956.
Last year, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.2 percent, meaning a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,224.94. With the rate at 5.2 percent, the monthly payment for the same size loan would be $1,098.22, meaning homeowners who refinance now would save more than $126 per month, the report said.
Housing and Urban Development officials have pointed out that rates might even continue to go down, resulting from government initiatives to kick start the economy, according to CNN.
FHA Key to Housing Rebound, $8K Tax Credit Helps, Say Realtors®
The Federal Housing Administration is a primary source of mortgage financing for millions of America’s families and plays a key role in helping bring stability to the housing market. This is the message that the National Association of Realtors® delivered to the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee recently.
“Without FHA financing, families would be unable to purchase homes and communities would suffer from continued foreclosures and blight,” said Lennox Scott, a member of NAR’s Real Estate Advisory Board. In his testimony, Scott shared NAR’s belief in the importance of FHA and concern for the safety and soundness of its programs due to its dramatic growth over a short period of time.
“We believe that FHA has done a good job stepping up to today’s market challenges. However, along with the dramatic growth in market share comes greater responsibility and the need for increased infrastructure and staff,” Scott said. During the past 18 months, FHA has handled an increase in volume four times greater than 2007 levels, increasing its market share to over 30 percent.
NAR suggests a number of FHA improvements that will help maintain safe and affordable FHA loan products. These improvements include investment in staff and technology improvements; increased oversight and risk management; technical correction to help implement FHA programs; and monetizing the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit to allow buyers to apply it toward downpayment requirements.
Source: realtor.org
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/04/fha_key
March 2009 Regional Home Sales
Northern Virginia: March 2009
The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® reports on March 2009 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.
A total of 1,384 homes sold in March 2009, a 10.72 percent increase above March 2008 home sales of 1,250.
Active listings decreased by 20.29 percent from last year, with 8,069 active listings in March, compared with 10,123 homes available in March 2008. The average days on market (DOM) for homes in March 2009 decreased by 18.35 percent to 89 days, compared with 109 days in March 2008.
Sales prices continue to remain lower than those realized last year. The average sales price in March fell by 16.97 percent from March 2008, to $395,512, compared with last March’s average of $476,342.
The median price of homes sold in Northern Virginia in March was $335,000, which is a decline of 16.54 percent compared with March 2008’s median price of $401,380.
Greater Northern Virginia: March 2009
Sales activity in Greater Northern Virginia (NVAR jurisdictions plus Prince William, Loudoun and the Greater Piedmont counties) for March 2009 continues to show an increase from 2008.
The number of Greater Northern Virginia region homes sold in March was 2,755, a 19.94 percent increase from March 2008’s total of 2,297 sales. This marks the twelfth consecutive month of increased year-over-year sales totals for Greater Northern Virginia.
The average sales price of $317,158 in March 2009 continues to lag behind the 2008 average by 22.51 percent. The March 2008 average sales price was $409,294. The year-to-date average sales price for March 2009 shows a decrease of 25.68 with an average sales price of $309,390 over the March 2008 average sales price of $416,276.
Across Greater Northern Virginia, the number of listings showed a decrease from 2008 numbers, with 15,508 listings active, which is 31.17 percent less than this time last year, when 22,531 homes were available. The average DOM for a home sold in March 2009 was 95 compared with last year’s 121 DOM, a decrease of 21.01 percent.